You can play a pirated game on a modded console online but you MIGHT eventually get banned. There is no definite pattern of banhammer. Its always a risk. Usually banhammer occurs around the launch of a high profile title. People usually play on LIVE for months but once a year, the banhammer DOES attack them. Some survive, others don't (in 2006-08) but none of consoles from 2009 survived (unless they never went online after the banhammer).