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Thoughts of the schizophrenic

What happened at siachen..A layman's analysis

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Look at the shape of Glacier in this Picture.


Now crop the Glacier and zoom in..and notice the Dam shaped structure? It looks alike an ice dam with Walls holding back the ice?
The top section is very steep at probably 70' angle then its almost flat at 20' angle an dthe bottom long tongue of the Glacier is at about 50' angle..and notice the Dark grey walls of the Ice dam??


The structure has varying gradients.The top and bottom are steep,but the ice lake is nearly horizontal.
The structure looks stable as the Vertical ridges of ice holding the Ice pool is wider than the pool itself and should have held it.
Such structures don't collapse suddenly and if they collapse,they do so in phases...
The whole Ice pool,the Vertical ridges and much of the Glacier tongue appear to have slid off in one go.

The same structure from a different angle..All these pictures are pretty recent..From late 2011


Now look at this Picture..This is on the morning of the Avalanche...Taken just after the Disaster...The whole of the ice dam and Much of the glacier tongue is missing?

Glaciers are clumsy and happily sit on their place for eons...They don't crash down the mountain like this..Unless there is a major earthquake or Volcanic eruption...There was a mile long Buffer zone between the camp and the Glacier in addition to the river..Its highly unlikely that a Glacier just breaks off the face of a mountain comes hurtling down hill..This was unthinkable.


Lets try to calculate the amount of Ice,snow and debris that crashed on them that fateful day.



This is the picture of the Army base before the disaster,although a bit old picture.
Assuming that the barrack/Hit in the red circle is 7 feet high from roof edge to bottom...We can see that 7 huts fit on the vertical face of the glacier on the sides and 10 huts fit in the middle.
This makes the Glacier 50 feet or 15 meters high on the sides and 70 feet or 21 meters high in the middle..Or a mean height of 18 meters?


Now this isnt a high resolution picture but presumably it was taken just after the disaster,and it clearly shows the Grey area just ahead of the Pure white snow at the top..Thats the missing area of the Glacier..Since the Edge of the Glacier was about 1.2 kilometers from the Camp.We can say that the Collapsed area of the Glacier is about 900 meter long and about Half as wide.

Now to find the area of the Slab of Glacier that crashed on the camp.

Its LXBXD?

Thats 900m X 450m X 18m

Thats a volume of 7290,000 cubic meters.

Average Density of Ice + Snow is 0.9 for ice, 0.7 for compacted snow 0.5 for non compacted snow..Mean density is 0.7 tons per cubic meter?

Total weight of the Glacier that crashed that day will be.

7290,000 X 0.7 Equals 5103,000 tons

Thats 5.1 million tons of Glacier sliding down the mountain...
Lets take out 50% margin of error in the calculation??..Even then its more than 2.5 Million tons of ice that hit our Soldiers on that unfortunate day.....

If you look at the top of the second picture you will see a straight line dividing the white snow and the missing Grey area,and that indicated the the whole slab slid off in one go.

Avalanches come down at speeds of 100 miles an hour..
2.5 million tons hurtling down the mountain at 100 Mph..How much forces are involved? May be somebody good in maths can convert this into Kilojoules and we can compare the destructive forces involved with detonation of small nuclear weapons..as i guess the forces will be equivalent.

A large Aircraft carrier weighs 100,00 tons...
The weight of glacier that crashed on the soldiers equals 25 Aircraft carriers hitting them at 100 miles an hours..

It looks very bad..But lets not lose hope..Miracles happen.They need our prayers.
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Comments

  1. SaJJAd WaSeeR's Avatar
    Allah pak unhen jannat naseeb kare !
    They sacrifice their today for our tomorrow !!
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  2. Gizmo's Avatar
    They're probably all dead by now.ANd they all died for nothing.
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  3. omarko's Avatar
    No one truly knows, Only Allah knows whether they died for something or their deaths was a waste.
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  4. jz90's Avatar
    Who says they died for nothing!! They achieved martyrdom. The highest level of sacrifice a muslim can attain. They died guarding our homeland from foreign forces, 24/7-365. You know how hard it is to live there at sub-zero temperatures (up to -50C). You can't even take a piss due to the risk of hypothermia, let alone staying alert on the front-line.

    May Allah grant them Jannah!! Ameen!!
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  5. CrashBandicoot's Avatar
    Whether the Siachen war is justified or not..this has nothing to do with the soldiers...Its for the politicians to decide,and any blame falls on them..These soldiers followed orders and went there solely to perform their duty of defending their country,and lost their lives doing so...They deserve all the praise..Please don't blame them of wrong doing.
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  6. Gizmo's Avatar
    @jz90..........They sat around on the top of a mountain in a war front where there is no war.Unless they were protecting the country from snowflakes they died for nothing.And If they were then they failed miserably lol

    oh well.Soldiers have died in worse conditions.
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  7. Serious Sam's Avatar
    No miracle will happen. Don't feed the nation lies. I challenge you to wear as much clothes you want and sit, for a whole day, in a deep freezer. They are there in -35C and for 5 days and people talk about miracles?.
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  8. sshah's Avatar
    They are dead; it is a fact. There is no way they can survive -40 - and they drop even further at night - temperature for this long. I really don't believe in miracles. And this 'died for the country' is a weird talk. I understand that there are posts there, my father served in siachin, it is basically termed as hard area. Dying for patriotism is as pointless as it can get, imo. I mean no disrespect to these poor men though; no one deserve to die this way.
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    Updated 16-04-12 at 02:43 AM by sshah
  9. SaJJAd WaSeeR's Avatar
    My father also served at siachen for one year and He told me everything about siachen how fear it is, BUT We can only hope for a miracle that ALLAH ALMIGHTY might save them IN SHA ALLAH
    They had sacrificed their lives for and for just nation.We should pray for them May Allah grant them Jannat.
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  10. tigerman's Avatar
    "Glaciers are clumsy and happily sit on their place for eons...They don't crash down the mountain like this..Unless there is a major earthquake or Volcanic eruption.." I've spent three years in northern areas and avalanches are a very normal thing. Villages often get engulfed under avalanches. Its just that this time avalanche got hold of soldiers this time.
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